We are currently in the period between crops, where news from the farmers, producers, and traders is thin. Planting, for the most part, is only just starting. There is a general level of optimism after poor crops last season, but this optimism is on nothing substantial. Other general news, the implementation of the new organic regulations on importation is still rumbling through the market, with import authorities not clear on the application, amongst other issues.
Paraguay is harvesting now and appears to have a good crop. This will divert the attention of the Japanese away from Central America and take some pressure off the dwindling supplies. However, we do not see much available seed in Guatemala and Nicaragua, so don’t expect prices to fall. In Mexico, the prices are still impacted by the high cost of importing Indian seed, which further contributes to keeping rates steady for the remainder of 2019. India, prices are still volatile to poor supply in the local markets. other factors causing additional fluctuation now is FX related as the Indian rupee and US Dollar are not too stable. Other news we heard; Water shortages are impacting on their summer crop, and we are awaiting figures on the potential yield before further comment. A lot of this crop is black sesame, and not suitable for hulling. Africa has ready stocks of natural, although the recent cyclone in Mozambique had hit supplies from there badly.
Bulgarian supply situation unchanged, as mentioned in prior issues, we see pricing starting to firm. Other news; Chinese grades (confectionery) are rapidly increasing in price and low availability.
Very tight supplies until new crop, but according to our sources, so far planting going well. Yields are going to be weather dependent. Keep in mind, with no carryover, short stocks from 2018, and massive expectation. We would suggest you lock into contracts for the new harvest as soon as possible. How’d that speculation work out for you last harvest?
Pumpkin seed kernels:
So we are off the bottom, particularly with Shine skin grades, and we are unlikely to see the lows again for some time. This product has had a difficult few years, and both growers and processors are struggling to make it viable. For 2019 supply prices are going to continue to firm in our opinion, perhaps not hugely but significantly, and of course the potential impact in FX rates could have a significant effect on local costs.
Brown Flax Seed:
Fairly steady demand, and supply, so the market should remain stable. It is interesting to see Canadian suppliers starting to want to return to the EU/UK market. We are investigating the potential of their GM status, after the Triffid issues of 8-9 years ago. If this is truly controlled now, it re-opens a potential new significant source to Eastern Europe.
Empty supplies around the world. But the thaw is starting in Northern USA, so supplies are beginning to move again. Prices will remain high until New crop, which means end September/October at the earliest. Assuming all is well with the harvest. No guarantees here!